Qimen Forecast for the October Fed Meeting: A Rate Hike Is All but Ruled Out, and BTC and Other Risk Assets May Get a Breather

The market widely expects the Fed to keep raising rates, but the Qimen chart I cast says otherwise: an October rate hike is all but ruled out.

First, some background:

1. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is the Fed's rate-setting meeting; it meets 8 times a year on a regular schedule.

2. The federal funds rate is the target rate for overnight lending between US banks; loan, deposit and other interest rates are all affected by it.

3. On September 16, the FOMC voted 12–0 to raise rates by 25 basis points, lifting the target range to 3.75%–4.00% — the first hike since July 2023.

4. 25 basis points = 0.25% (1 basis point = 0.01%).

5. The dot plot shows each official's expectation for future rates. The median of the September dot plot implies one more hike before year-end.

The October meeting takes place on October 27–28 (US Eastern Time), and the decision will be announced at 2:00 AM Beijing time (UTC+8) on October 29.

Chart:
September 29, 2026, 11:55 (Beijing time, UTC+8)
Year Bing-Wu, Month Ding-You, Day Bing-Wu, Hour Jia-Wu
Yin Dun Ju 4; the Chief Star (Zhi Fu) is Tian Peng, the Chief Door (Zhi Shi) is the Rest Door (Xiu Men); the whole chart is in Fu Yin (Hidden Moaning).

Palaces used: a hike is read from Palace 4, no change from Palace 2, and a cut from Palace 5.

Rate hike (Palace 4): it falls into the Hour's Void (Kong Wang), so a hike is all but ruled out.

No change (Palace 2):

The whole chart is in Fu Yin, which generally leans toward staying unchanged; in Palace 2 the Death Door (Si Men) also signifies no change, and there is a Geng-over-Geng Fu Yin. But the Hour's Horse, Shen, sits in Palace 2, which is a sign of movement. So "no change" remains in doubt here.

Rate cut (Palace 5):
Yi over Yi: a cut is reached by a winding path, and it will be small.

What actually happens is read from Palace 9: the White Tiger signifies a decline, and overall the information in Palace 9 is closer to Palace 5, leaning toward a cut; the View Door (Jing Men) signifies announcements and news.

But the whole chart is in Fu Yin, and the Chief Door, the Rest Door, falls in Kan Palace 1 — a sign of stagnation and pausing; and Wu Fire enters its tomb in the Xu month, so the signal for a cut should be discounted.

Conclusion: a rate hike is all but ruled out; there are signs of a cut, but the process is winding and the pace slow — even if they do cut, it will most likely be only a small 25-basis-point cut; no change can't be completely ruled out either.

This differs from the current mainstream expectation, so feel free to keep a record and let's check it together on October 29. This chart covers only the October meeting; there is another rate meeting in December, which is outside the scope of this reading.

General tendencies of the three outcomes for Bitcoin and other financial markets (not certainties):

Hike: borrowing becomes more expensive, the US dollar tends to strengthen, and BTC and other risk assets usually come under pressure;

No change: fairly neutral — the focus is on the wording of the post-meeting statement and the press conference;

Cut: borrowing costs fall, the US dollar tends to weaken, which is usually positive for BTC and other risk assets.

Reading this chart: the pressure of an October hike has largely lifted, which is overall neutral to positive for BTC, US stocks and other risk assets; but the path to a cut is winding, and the market may still swing back and forth before and after the meeting, so don't be overly optimistic.

This discusses direction only and makes no promises about any price levels.

Friendly reminder: this article is an analysis from a metaphysical perspective only, for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice.